Probabilistic Modeling of Landslide Hazards to Improve the Resilience of Transportation Infrastructure

In steep or mountainous terrain, natural disasters such as wildfire, or severe weather and flooding, are often followed by landslides and debris flows. Roads and highways, which traverse a wide range of potential landslide hazards, are particularly susceptible to damage from mass wasting events. In this project, the research team will use a probabilistic process-based model for landslide initiation to quantify the probability of landslide hazard across the landscape, and map these hazards onto the road and highway network to determine probabilities of landslide hazard continuously throughout the transportation network. Uncertainty in hydroclimatological forcing, soils, and vegetation parameters will be accounted for through Monte Carlo simulation. Initial model development and application will focus on Colorado; in particular, the September 2013 Front Range floods which triggered over 1,100 debris flows.

• Record URL:
  https://www.mountain-plains.org/research/details.php?id=490

Language

• English

Project

• Status: Completed
• Funding: $112000
• Contract Numbers:

  69A3551747108

• Sponsor Organizations:

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Managing Organizations:

  Mountain-Plains Consortium

  North Dakota State University
  Fargo, ND  United States  58108
• Project Managers:

  Tolliver, Denver

• Performing Organizations:

  Colorado State University

  Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  Campus Delivery 1372
  Fort Collins, CO  United States  80523
• Principal Investigators:

  Nelson, Peter

• Start Date: 20190226
• Expected Completion Date: 20230731
• Actual Completion Date: 20230731
• USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program
• Source Data: MPC-593

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Debris flows; Disaster resilience; Floods; Forecasting; Highways; Landslides; Mapping; Monte Carlo method; Probability
• Geographic Terms: Colorado
• Subject Areas: Environment; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01698679
• Record Type: Research project
• Source Agency: Mountain-Plains Consortium
• Contract Numbers: 69A3551747108
• Files: UTC, RIP
• Created Date: Mar 7 2019 2:57PM