Reliability-Based Assessment of Landslide Risk Along Roadways

This research will adapt a procedure that the principal investigators (PIs) have previously developed for assessment of underseepage and internal erosion risk for levees (Boulware and Rice 2017, Polanco and Rice 2014, 2012) to the problem of landslide disruption of roadways. Models will be developed for each geologic feature type that can assess the stability of the feature for ranges of geometric parameters (depth of deposit, slope inclination, groundwater level, etc.) and material properties (unit weight, strength, etc.). Depending on the complexity of the analysis, the landslide model may be represented by a closed-form equation or, in the case of a large number of input parameters, a response surface (a multi-dimensional function representing the relationship between input parameters and the failure potential). A Monte Carlo analyses will then be performed for each feature along the stretch of roadway using probability density functions (pdfs) representing the likelihood of a given parameter having a certain value over the range of possible values. The failure probability can be annualized by considering triggering events (such as rainfall events having calculated return frequencies) and assessing the effects of multiple levels of these events. The resulting fragility curve ties the probability of failure to the likelihood of the triggering event. This method will provide a tool for agencies to assess their annual risk due to landslide hazards and will give these agencies a means for optimizing their mitigation efforts.


  • English


  • Status: Active
  • Funding: $100000
  • Contract Numbers:


  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

    University Transportation Centers Program
    Department of Transportation
    Washington, DC  United States  20590
  • Managing Organizations:

    Mountain-Plains Consortium

    North Dakota State University
    Fargo, ND  United States  58108
  • Project Managers:

    Tolliver, Denver

  • Performing Organizations:

    Utah State University, Logan

    Civil and Environmental Engineering Department
    Logan, UT  United States  84332
  • Principal Investigators:

    Rice, John

    Bay, James

  • Start Date: 20171211
  • Expected Completion Date: 20240731
  • Actual Completion Date: 0
  • USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program
  • Source Data: MPC-561

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01656347
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: Mountain-Plains Consortium
  • Contract Numbers: 69A3551747108
  • Files: UTC, RIP
  • Created Date: Jan 3 2018 3:07PM