Improving Bicycle Crash Prediction


The 2010 Highway Safety Manual (HSM) provides methods for predicting the number of motor vehicle crashes on various roadway facilities. However, it includes only a rudimentary method for predicting the number of bicycle-related crashes. Despite research demonstrating that bicycle volume is an important factor in estimating number of bicycle crashes, the method does not include the volume of bicyclists using the roadway. To remedy this, this project will investigate the potential of various simplified methods to include bicycle volumes in future versions of the HSM. By studying locations where bicycle traffic volumes, motor vehicle traffic volumes, bicycle collisions, and roadway facility types are known, the research team will study how best to predict bicycle collisions. This includes creating bicycle specific safety performance functions. The project will then examine how and if these methods could be simplified for use in future versions of the HSM. Potentially, bicyclist volumes could be simplified into high, medium, and low categories in order to reduce the need for difficult to find data. The impact of different facility types will also be investigated, such that a generalized table appropriate for HSM users can be generated. While this research cannot provide a final HSM-ready version, it will investigate locations where data are available and could lead the way in developing such. In addition, this work will investigate the impact of cyclist volume on bicyclist collision risk. This work could have an impact on cyclist safety by facilitating a better understanding of the impact of facility design on bicyclist safety by separating out the effect of bicycle volume on predicted bicycle crashes.


  • English


  • Status: Completed
  • Funding: $275,000.00
  • Contract Numbers:

    NITC 756

  • Sponsor Organizations:

    Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

    University Transportation Centers Program
    Department of Transportation
    Washington, DC  United States  20590

    National Institute for Transportation and Communities

    Portland State University
    P.O. Box 751
    Portland, OR  United States  97207
  • Project Managers:

    Hagedorn, Hau

  • Performing Organizations:

    Portland State University

    P.O. Box 751
    Portland, OR  United States  97207-0751

    Oregon Department of Transportation

    555 13th Street NE
    Salem, OR  United States  97301

    University of Colorado, Denver

    Center for Urban Transportation Studies, 1100 14th Street
    Denver, CO  United States  80202
  • Principal Investigators:

    Nordback, Krista

    Kothuri, Sirisha

    Marshall, Wesley

  • Start Date: 20150701
  • Expected Completion Date: 20170630
  • Actual Completion Date: 20180601
  • USDOT Program: University Transportation Centers Program

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01579603
  • Record Type: Research project
  • Source Agency: National Institute for Transportation and Communities
  • Contract Numbers: NITC 756
  • Files: UTC, RIP
  • Created Date: Oct 24 2015 3:45PM