Consumer Expectations and the Evolution of the US Vehicle Fleet: Re-examining CAFE Standards

This project will examine how people make decisions about automobile purchases and the effect that these choices have on long-run gasoline demand. Gasoline prices have risen steadily for a decade, and engine technology is on the cusp of dramatic transformation. Despite this rapidly-changing economic landscape, attempts to reduce gasoline demand have remained the same for decades, taking the form of CAFE standards. Unfortunately, the effect of these standards on the composition of the vehicle fleet is not well understood. This gap in the literature is a result of the complexity of modeling the durable good purchase decision. In this project I will use a dynamic discrete choice approach that is ideally suited for that purpose, yet has not been used until now in this setting. This approach will offer a natural framework within which to evaluate the welfare costs and gasoline-saving benefits of various market interventions such as CAFE standards, vehicle retirement subsidies, and carbon taxes. The results will provide policymakers with insights into how best to achieve abatement goals such as California's AB32.


    • English


    • Status: Active
    • Funding: $69955.00
    • Contract Numbers:



    • Sponsor Organizations:

      California Department of Transportation

      1227 O Street
      Sacramento, CA  United States  95843
    • Performing Organizations:

      Sustainable Transportation Center/ITS-Davis

      University of California, Davis
      Davis, CA  United States  95616
    • Principal Investigators:

      Rapson, David

    • Start Date: 20081001
    • Expected Completion Date: 0
    • Actual Completion Date: 20090930
    • Source Data: RiP Project 20902

    Subject/Index Terms

    Filing Info

    • Accession Number: 01468376
    • Record Type: Research project
    • Source Agency: University of California Transportation Center/Institute of Transportation Studies
    • Contract Numbers: DTRT06-G-0022, R03-5
    • Files: UTC, RIP, STATEDOT
    • Created Date: Jan 3 2013 3:49PM