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    <copyright>Copyright © 2026. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.</copyright>
    <docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs>
    <managingEditor>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</managingEditor>
    <webMaster>tris-trb@nas.edu (Bill McLeod)</webMaster>
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      <title>Research in Progress (RIP)</title>
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      <link>https://rip.trb.org/</link>
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    <item>
      <title>Highway Safety Manual Crash Prediction Models of Arterial Weaving Segments</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2712176</link>
      <description><![CDATA[More than half of U.S. roadway deaths and nearly two-thirds of pedestrian fatalities occur on non-freeway arterials. Arterial sections with weaving maneuvers are complex for all road users to navigate and traverse without incidents or collisions.

The Code of Federal Regulations requires determination of whether the location, configuration, geometric design, and signing related to a proposed change in access may be reasonably expected to serve the anticipated traffic of the Interstate system in a manner that is conducive to safety, durability, and economy of maintenance. For many existing and proposed alternative designs, the safety of the weave is not quantified between ramps. Examples include cloverleaf designs with adjacent intersections and crossing weaves from ramps to downstream left turns. A better understanding of crash outcomes is needed for a variety of rural and urban speeds and contexts.

As part of NCHRP Project 15-66, “Operational Performance and Safety Effects of Arterial Weaving Sections,” crash data and conflict data obtained in the field and a driving simulator were analyzed to assess the safety performance of several types of arterial weaving sections. The results of the safety analysis did not provide a definitive relationship between the length and vehicle maneuvers of arterial weaving sections and crashes or conflicts; however, sufficient information was found to suggest additional research in this area would yield promising results toward developing a methodology for predicting the safety performance of arterial weaving sections suitable for inclusion in the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM).

The objective of this research is to develop a crash prediction methodology, safety performance functions (SPFs), to assess different types of arterial weaving sections, suitable for inclusion in the HSM.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 14:53:30 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2712176</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Calibration and Implementation of Highway Safety Manual Bicyclist and Pedestrian Intersection Crash Prediction Models</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2635921</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The forthcoming 2nd Edition of the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM2) will introduce dedicated crash prediction models (CPMs) for pedestrian and bicyclist crashes at intersections, midblock crossings, and roadway segments.  The goal of this research is to calibrate the HSM2 pedestrian and bicyclist intersection CPMs using Virginia-specific data. The research outcomes will enhance the accuracy of nonmotorized crash predictions and support Virginia Department of Transportation's (VDOT’s) broader goals of data-driven planning, design decision-making, and funding prioritization for safety improvements. To achieve this goal, the research will (1) assemble a comprehensive dataset for selected representative intersections in Virginia, including crash history, exposure data, and roadway and roadside design features required by the HSM2 CPMs, (2) develop appropriate methods for estimating pedestrian and bicyclist exposure at intersections, considering available data sources, (3) develop a robust calibration methodology that accounts for the variability of contextual settings, exposure ranges, facility types and jurisdictions, etc., and (4) design a practical tool and accompanying guidance to help VDOT implement and maintain the calibrated pedestrian and bicyclist CPMs.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2025 08:52:41 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2635921</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Validation of HSM Crash Prediction Methods for Specific Intersection Types in Oregon</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2593954</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) is the national guidance of quantitative safety analysis used in highway transportation planning, alternatives development, highway design, operations, and maintenance. However, some crash prediction models and crash modification factors in the Highway Safety Manual were developed using data from other states, not Oregon. Therefore, it is necessary to validate these models and crash modification factors for the implementation in Oregon.
Recently the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) project 17-68 “Intersection Crash Prediction Methods for the Highway Safety Manual” has developed crash prediction models of more intersection types for inclusion in the HSM. The types of intersections include all-way stop control, three-leg intersections with signal control on rural highways, intersections on high-speed urban and suburban arterials, five-leg intersections, etc. Currently, there is no guideline for how to use these new crash prediction models particularly in Oregon. It is necessary to validate these models and crash modification factors in Oregon to guide the statewide implementation.
This research proposes to focus on intersections on urban and suburban arterials, which are common intersection types.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 28 Aug 2025 12:53:55 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2593954</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Applying Crash Prediction Models Across Traffic Control and Facility Types



</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2558381</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) is used by transportation agencies for decisions on planning, design, and operational safety. The manual includes crash prediction models to estimate the expected safety performance of various functional classifications of roadway segments and intersections. However, crash prediction models for intersections in the HSM can sometimes produce unexpected and difficult-to-interpret results when comparing crash outcomes across different traffic control types. For example, signalization at intersections may not consistently yield the expected crash reductions, particularly for high-severity crashes.

While the HSM is under revision to enhance these models and provide broader guidance in their application, there is a need for clear direction on how to apply the models to conduct comparative safety evaluations across traffic control and facility types. Research is needed to establish and quantify differences in predictive crash outcomes derived from the HSM crash prediction models when comparing the safety performance of different traffic control types. The findings will support improving safety in project concepts proposed by transportation planners and designs by engineers.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this research is to develop a framework and guide, including application recommendations and tools, to support the use of HSM crash prediction models when analyzing traffic control types for a given location or facility type.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 28 May 2025 14:12:45 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2558381</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Traffic Speed Effects on Highway Safety Manual Crash Prediction Models




</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2558395</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Speed management and data-driven safety analysis are priority topics for the highway safety community. A key gap in the body of knowledge is limited understanding of traffic speed effects in the crash frequency and severity prediction models for most facility types. It is known that the severity of motor vehicle crashes increases with increasing traffic speed, and speed may influence crash frequency. However, speed is correlated with nearly every other factor in the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Highway Safety Manual (HSM) crash frequency and severity prediction methods. As a result, current prediction approaches do not seem to incorporate traffic speed effects well and may even show counterintuitive results.

Improving the consideration of traffic speed effects in the models may result in more realistic and insightful results. Given the correlation of traffic speed with other roadway and intersection features, innovative methods of quantifying speed effects in crash prediction methods in addition to regression modeling should be considered. Research is needed to find ways to incorporate traffic speed effects into HSM crash prediction models to make them more accurate and better suited toward developing designs based on the Safe System Approach.

The objective of the research is to develop implementable methods to incorporate the effects of traffic speeds on the prediction of crash frequency and severity. The proposed methods should be applicable to different roadway facility types, in a format compatible with HSM methods to support the work of state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other users of the manual.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 28 May 2025 10:16:59 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2558395</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Updated Calibration Factors for Highway Safety Manual Crash Prediction Models (2020-2023)</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2536232</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Traffic safety is the primary objective for transportation professionals. However, according to the traffic crash data released by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 39,007 lives were taken in traffic crashes in 2020, which represents a 6.8% increase in fatal crashes and a 21% increase in the fatality rate per 100 million vehicle miles traveled, respectively, over the previous year. The Highway Safety Manual (HSM), published by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 2010, provides a set of quantitative tools that help transportation practitioners make more informed decisions regarding highway safety performance. One of the most critical tools are Safety Performance Functions (SPFs), models that relate expected safety performance of individual facilities (measured in terms of expected annual crash frequency) with its specific features, such as traffic volume or geometric characteristics. 

The design-level SPFs included in the HSM were developed using data from a limited number of states. Since a variety of features, including traffic flow characteristics, crash reporting system, and climate vary significantly across different states, using the HSM SPFs or other national-level SPFs directly for any state will likely lead to biased predictions. For this reason, jurisdictions need to calibrate these SPFs before they can be applied for meaningful predictive analysis. This calibration is typically done using a calibration factor. The purpose of this study is to develop updated calibration factors and accompanying crash proportion tables for the SPFs in the HSM using the most recent data and develop calibration factors for newer SPFs that are now available via other national-level projects. 

The segment facility types that calibration factors will be generated for include the following:
two-lane rural roads (Chapter 10 of HSM); rural multilane roads (Chapter 11 of HSM);  urban and suburban arterials (2-5 lanes from Chapter 12 of HSM); urban and suburban arterials (6-8 lanes and one-way from the results of NCHRP (5) 17-58); and urban and rural freeways, and ramps (Chapters 18 and 19 of HSM). The intersection types that calibration factors will be generated for include the following: intersections on rural two-lane highways; intersections on rural multilane highways; intersections on urban and suburban arterials and one-way streets; ramp terminals (Chapter 19 of HSM); and roundabouts (results of NCHRP 17-70).

SPF calibration factors will be generated by following the calibration procedure in the HSM using 2020 through 2023 data. The research team will identify study sites for inclusion in this effort by beginning with sites used in previous North Carolina SPF calibration efforts and then supplementing those locations to build a robust database meeting sample size requirements suggested by the HSM. Then, the research team will collect roadway geometric and operational data and gather and assemble crash data for each site. Finally, the research team will use the SPFs to predict crash frequency for each site and calculate statewide calibration factors and crash proportion tables, as well as regional calibrations for the Mountain, Piedmont, and Coastal regions. The outcomes of this project are anticipated to: (1) provide North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) the ability to generate North Carolina-specific predictions for all facility types; (2) incorporate economic analysis into decision-making by determining expected changes in safety performance among alternatives; (3) increased reliability in decision-making by using state-of-the-practice methods for evaluating expected safety performance; and (4) develop a broader dataset for North Carolina to serve as a base for future applications in calibration efforts.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 11 Apr 2025 01:36:13 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2536232</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Training Program to Apply Quantitative Highway Safety Analysis Methods



</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2381750</link>
      <description><![CDATA[NCHRP Project 17-71A, "Proposed AASHTO Highway Safety Manual, Second Edition" (HSM2) has developed proposed materials in a format suitable for consideration by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). HSM2 is expected to incorporate updates from several associated research projects, as well as other relevant highway safety guidance documents and publications. While the HSM2 was not intended to be a complete rewrite, it underwent significant changes in content and organization (see Special Note A). This presents a major opportunity to advance highway safety practices through its application and integration into engineering practices.

As the proposed HSM2 material is provided to AASHTO for consideration, a concurrent effort is needed to create guidelines on the appropriate application of HSM2 for transportation agencies.

Research is needed to develop training materials and tools that support state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other practitioners in adopting and applying the new HSM2 materials. The resources will facilitate the implementation of the HSM2 materials throughout the full project life-cycle, from programming and planning to design and operation, by focusing on typical HSM2 applications and incorporating the NCHRP Project 17-127, "Guide for Applying Quantitative Highway Safety Analysis Methods" for non-traditional cases.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this research is to develop a comprehensive training program to support understanding why and how to apply HSM2.

The training program, with a minimum of 40 hours of training modules, shall be developed with a focus on being customizable, interactive, engaging, and incorporating real-world examples. The training program must be developed to: Include a target audience that encompasses, but is not limited to, those involved in research, planning, project development, and operations; Assume that the targeted audience may have limited or no previous experience in applying quantitative highway safety analysis methods.
]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2024 10:14:00 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2381750</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Imagery Reference Illustrating Data Elements for Crash Prediction Methodology



</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2381752</link>
      <description><![CDATA[With the increased emphasis on highway safety, both nationally and with many local agencies, more individuals look to the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) for guidance on how to reduce fatalities and serious injuries on roadways. However, it may be challenging for new users of the crash prediction methods in HSM Part C to understand the various definitions, facility types, facility features, and input values used in safety performance functions (SPFs) and adjustment factors (AFs). This situation can lead to the improper application of the HSM predictive methods.

Research is needed to develop resources and ensure state department of transportation staff and other practitioners can interpret and apply the correct input values to crash prediction models to better support data-driven safety analysis.

The objective of this project is to develop an imagery reference to assist practitioners in understanding the data elements and definitions used in crash prediction methods as outlined in Part C of the HSM, 2nd Edition.

The imagery reference will feature graphics, photographs, drawings, plots, multimedia, and other visual aids to clearly illustrate the characteristics and features of the inputs utilized in predictive analysis.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2024 10:02:54 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2381752</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Crash Prediction Methods for Long-Term Work Zones</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2381735</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Highway Safety Manual (HSM) has crash prediction methods for multilane roadway facilities, but only a few of the available methods address the safety performance of these facilities with long-duration work zones (defined as work zones with temporary traffic control [TTC] devices that remain in place for extended time periods [i.e., multiple weeks or months]) in place. As a result, state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other highway agencies rely on judgment and experience rather than quantitative safety analysis in developing TTC plans for long-duration work zones.

Research is needed to better understand the quantitative safety performance, including crash frequency and crash severity measures, of a variety of work zone TTC characteristics. These characteristics include speed limit, lane closures, lane shifts, shoulder closures, median crossovers, lane width, shoulder width, horizontal curvature, offsets from the traveled way to traffic barriers, breakdown bay (i.e., emergency pull-off area), and construction access points. New knowledge on these topics should be assembled into quantitative crash prediction methods that can be used by state DOTs and other highway agencies in developing TTC plans. 

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this project is to develop crash prediction methods and supporting spreadsheet tools for state DOTs and other highway agencies to plan and design TTC for long-duration work zones on high-speed (45 mph or higher) multilane roadway facilities. 

The crash prediction methods should be capable of comparing the expected safety performance of different work zone design options to assist in planning work zone configurations and project phasing. These crash prediction methods should have a similar structure to existing HSM crash prediction methods, with safety performance functions and crash modification factors. The research may adapt these approaches as needed to provide an effective procedure and structure for the models to provide crash frequency and severity estimates. These crash prediction methods should be suitable for incorporation in future editions of the AASHTO HSM. ]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 21 May 2024 20:29:15 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2381735</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Crash Prediction Models for Alternative and Unconventional Intersections</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2219017</link>
      <description><![CDATA[In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) published the first edition of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM). HSM Part C includes methods to assess the safety performance of existing highway facilities, predict the safety performance of new facilities, and estimate the change in safety performance for proposed improvements. The forthcoming second edition of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM-2) expands crash prediction models for analyzing safety performance to include additional intersection and facility types. However, not all intersection types are addressed in the HSM or HSM-2; intersection types not addressed include

Intersections with frontage roads,

Protected intersections,

Offset intersections,

Quadrant intersections,

Through-cut intersections,

Median U-turn intersections,

Jughandle intersections,

Continuous green tee intersections,

Rural five-leg intersections, and

Six-or-more-leg intersections.


Research is needed to develop crash prediction models for additional intersection configurations and traffic control types that have not been previously studied for potential inclusion in future editions of the HSM. New crash prediction models need to be developed so comparisons can be made to the safety performance of intersection types in the latest edition of the HSM.
OBJECTIVE:
The objective of this research is to develop crash prediction models that are compatible with existing methods in HSM Part C and include a range of intersection configurations and traffic control types. 

]]></description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 25 Jul 2023 08:12:26 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2219017</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Network Screening on Low-Volume Roads: Empirical Validation of a New Proposed Methodology</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2170310</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Maintaining safety on the roadway system has become a top priority for most highway agencies in recent year because traffic crashes and associated casualties remain at alarming levels in the United States. However, tighter budgets require highway agencies to identify locations that are associated with higher crash risks (and often higher crash reductions) for optimum use of their limited resources. To this end, highway agencies systemically screen the network to identify sites that are expected to yield greater safety benefits, thus deserving more consideration for Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP) funds.

A recent project sponsored by the Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) and the Small Urban, Rural, and Tribal Center on Mobility (SURTCOM) developed a methodology for network screening that requires a minimal amount of geometric, traffic, and crash data. The method can be implemented by local agencies such as counties, reservations, and townships as it does not require extensive technical expertise. This method was primarily developed using the safety performance functions (SPFs) and crash modification factor (CMFs) contained in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM). Given the scope of the previous project, no validation was conducted to assess the robustness of the proposed method using field data. This validation is deemed very important to better understand the strengths and limitations of the proposed methodology especially since the HSM is a national document and does not necessarily represent the safety trends in any specific region within the country.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 12 May 2023 15:48:53 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2170310</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Highway Safety Manual 2nd Edition (HSM2) Implementation</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/2169804</link>
      <description><![CDATA[In 2010, the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials (AASHTO) published the Highway Safety Manual 1st Edition (HSM).  At that time, the AASHTO Committee on Safety established a goal in its Strategic Plan to institutionalize the HSM and its associated analytical tools to help transportation agencies make data-driven decisions, advance the science of safety, and to ultimately reduce fatalities and serious injuries. One proposed action in support of that goal was to establish and maintain an HSM Implementation Pooled Fund Study.  The Federal Highway Administration agreed to organize and manage the TPF-5(255) Highway Safety Manual Implementation Pooled-Fund Study, in which 22 States ultimately participated.  With the anticipated publication of the AASHTO HSM Second Edition (estimated 2025), there is strong interest from States to establish a new pooled fund to accelerate implementation of HSM2. OBJECTIVES: Accelerate implementation of HSM2 and related analytical tools to assess current and future safety performance of existing roadways and alternative designs, and help practitioners make more informed decisions, better target investments, and reduce fatalities and serious injuries on the nations roadways.  This includes activities before and after publication of HSM2 (anticipated 2025).]]></description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 10 May 2023 16:49:53 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/2169804</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Enhancement of Roadside Design Safety Prediction Models for the Highway Safety Manual</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/1854201</link>
      <description><![CDATA[The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Highway Safety Manual (HSM) is a resource that allows safety practitioners to consider safety fully and quantitatively in project decisions. The first edition of the HSM (HSM1) provides a method for considering roadside conditions in analyses of two-lane facilities that is based on a qualitative and visual index. The user selects a factor, called a Roadside Hazard Rating (RHR), using a series of photographs and descriptions to represent the roadside on the existing or proposed facility undergoing analysis. This rating is used in a limited number of safety performance functions (SPF) and/or crash modification factors (CMF) to account for roadside features on two-lane rural roads in crash predictions. Roadside information is limited to side-slopes on undivided multi- lane roadways and is not incorporated into analyses for other multi-lane divided facility types addressed in the HSM1.

Since publication of the HSM1 in 2010 there has been research to fill the knowledge gaps in the associated safety performance models and those used in the Roadside Design Guide (RDG) for roadside features. NCHRP Project 17-54, “Consideration of Roadside Features in the Highway Safety Manual,” developed models to quantitatively consider the roadside in safety analyses. The NCHRP Project 17-54 models were of a different form than the existing HSM1 models, using exposure versus predictive models. The findings for SPFs and CMFs could not be validated by small sample testing by several states. Of particular concern was the shape (reduced road departure crash rates) of the SPFs at higher volumes, and the associated effects of roadside fixed objects and their offsets to the travel way. Review of the fixed object CMFs by NCHRP Project 17-82, “Proposed Guidance for Fixed Objects in the Roadside Design Guide” reached similar conclusions.

The research team for NCHRP Project 17-72, “Update of Crash Modification Factors for the Highway Safety Manual,” reviewed the NCHRP Project 17-54 results and the results of an AASHTO analysis to determine if data from NCHRP Project 17-54 and other sources could be used to develop an alternative roadside CMF. Rather than use the data and findings, an optional method was proposed using other data sources that correlated well with the RHR. Several states again tested the models and some states had results that over predicted crashes and some states had results that under predicted crashes. It was found that the increased level of effort to use the NCHRP 17-72 roadside method led to results that were approximately as accurate as the more qualitative but less data-intensive method already in the HSM1. This result indicated a continued need for research to improve the analysis method.

The results of prior demonstration tests, while limited in number and scope, along with the analysis of the NCHRP Project 17-54 research results, have highlighted the need to collect additional data and validate proposed models, and to determine whether improvements are needed for the roadside-related crash prediction tools proposed for future editions of the HSM. If new data are available or readily collectable, then the model could be improved. The same validation and model development would also benefit efforts to develop a performance-based RDG.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this research are to (a) validate roadside safety performance functions (SPF) and associated crash modification factors (CMF) developed in NCHRP Project 17-54, including associated design element variables, that are appropriate for consideration by AASHTO to incorporate in the Highway Safety Manual, (b) develop or enhance roadside SPFs to supplement or replace existing models for rural, suburban, or urban arterial roadways with consideration of total versus single vehicle crashes and their frequency and severity, and (c) coordinate the research products with planned content of other performance-based design manuals such as the Green Book and Roadside Design Guide.

The research results shall be used to develop proposed draft language for consideration by AASHTO to incorporate the research findings in appropriate HSM chapters. The work will include review of available roadway and roadside design element inventory and associated crash data and the potential collection of new data. Both the roadway departure SPFs and related CMFs for design elements will be provided for the roadway facility types prioritized by AASHTO based on available or collected data.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 27 May 2021 19:30:01 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/1854201</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>RES2016-27: Highway Safety Manual Safety Performance Functions &amp; Roadway Calibration Factors: Roadway Segments</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/1767387</link>
      <description><![CDATA[To enhance safety, the Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) is in the process of adopting the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) as a resource to facilitate decision making based on the safety performance of its roadways. The predictive models which are known as Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) are used to forecast the expected crash frequency for various roadway facility types. The HSM (2010) recommends transportation agencies such as TDOT either to develop their own SPFs using local data or develop calibration factors for use with the HSM default SPFs to reflect local conditions. This is because the HSM default SPFs were developed using data from a subset of states. Geographical conditions in Tennessee may differ substantially from the factors used to develop the default SPFs in the HSM such as terrain, weather, animal populations, driver populations, crash reporting thresholds, and crash reporting practices. Therefore, this study undertakes the task of developing 1) Tennessee-specific calibration factors, and 2) estimating Tennessee-specific SPFs. The calibration factors and locally estimated SPFs presented in this report are ready for implementation in Tennessee. Part 1 of the report focuses on rural multilane segments and urban/suburban arterial segments (Part 2 focuses on relevant intersections). Given the availability of relevant data in E-TRIMS, TDOT is in a good position to adopt the HSM procedures and benefit from software applications that make it easier to use the HSM. In this regard, the AASHTO Safety Analyst tool is discussed in detail. An example demonstrates how the Safety Analyst can use calibration factors and locally calibrated SPFs to make predictions of crashes with and without countermeasures. At the end of the report, recommendations are provided for advancing safety analysis in Tennessee.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 04 Feb 2021 14:40:22 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/1767387</guid>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Calibration Factors for Safety Performance Functions</title>
      <link>https://rip.trb.org/View/1743195</link>
      <description><![CDATA[Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) are equations that estimate expected average crash frequency as a function of traffic volume and roadway characteristics (e.g., number of lanes, median type, intersection control, number of approach legs). SPFs are developed through statistical regression modeling using historical crash data and are used to enable the correction of short-term crash counts. MDOT seeks to develop local calibration factors for the Safety Performance Functions used in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) predictive method. SPF calibration factors tailored for the local conditions and crash frequency within Mississippi will help MDOT identify high-priority locations in which taxpayer dollars will be better utilized to keep the travelling public safe. The development of these SPF calibration factors will help better automate the crash prediction process within the Safety Analysis Management System (SAMS) program used by the MDOT Traffic Engineering Division. The SPF calibration factors will help MDOT prioritize the spending of approximately $35 million in Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP) funds annually.]]></description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 05 Oct 2020 16:31:44 GMT</pubDate>
      <guid>https://rip.trb.org/View/1743195</guid>
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